Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Hits
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
first pitch in07:13:42
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.
Edge
Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +17.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +17.9pt EV vs implied
- 80.0% over last 15 games
- L10 hit-rate: 80% (8/10)
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
14
Hit rate
50.0%
7-7
ROI
-28.64%
-0.61u
CLV avg
+1.45%
n=14
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (14 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#12762
UUIDde53eaeb-d265-4203-9e77-46e2ac0e10f1
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-23 15:13 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash402ecf91799d6ad25eb778885680bf0c9feae839608cca1b6a3c4a58f1da6aa7
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger80.8% hashed1,309 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.9% closed1,288 settled picks · 63.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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