Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Hits
New York Mets @ Texas Rangers
first pitch in02:41:04
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.
Edge
Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +17.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +17.9pt EV vs implied
- 80.0% over last 15 games
- L10 hit-rate: 80% (8/10)
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
17
Settled
16
Hit rate
50.0%
8-8
ROI
-27.72%
-0.65u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#12923
UUIDfc9d692b-0c2e-4602-af6d-ee7a79fffb56
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-24 14:37 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb85b89cb38490ed01901c014c06f96e2b7401064140f7d464ba2ec85e07da67f
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Why this receipt is trustable
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