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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED febd7606

Sal Stewart Under 1.5 Total Bases

Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-160

CLV

-1.17%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 7 games vs 62.3% implied → +8.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 7 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cleveland Guardians6
Cincinnati Reds1
Winner: Cleveland Guardians · 2026-07-29
Related Picks (15)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-1.17%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1638
UUID86bba8be-b085-4339-bc6c-99bbe6132d57
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-29 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-30 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashfebd76068280f952066386c3c1a46d84c99ca47b8fb1fd123ec8dd3db7ed7ad2
Closing line-160 captured 2026-07-29 21:40 UTC
CLV delta-1.17%
Closing hash16fb496dd0fca37755cfea3762b7695631712b20a655ea892bc2056b7876cffa

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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