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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED aa8376b4

Yohendrick Pinango Under 1.5 Total Bases

Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-160

CLV

-1.17%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +19.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Toronto Blue Jays5
Washington Nationals2
Winner: Toronto Blue Jays · 2026-07-29
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-1.17%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1635
UUIDfc620f32-9d87-4eb9-951c-5709e655dbd3
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-29 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 20:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashaa8376b4f233de779f21b4727637b31ce93b5cc8565386f127d95e26ee323733
Closing line-160 captured 2026-07-29 15:37 UTC
CLV delta-1.17%
Closing hash1f5e9b6b744367e52a843d415c3ffeaa82c8d8e053a8f5596d466b8743ad84a6

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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