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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-24🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4c32da87

Jo Adell Over 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox

-179risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-179

Closing

-179

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 82.0% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +17.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cleveland Guardians1
Boston Red Sox0
Winner: Cleveland Guardians · 2026-09-24
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
20
Settled
20
Hit rate
55.6%
10-8
ROI
-15.51%
-0.4u
CLV avg
-0.94%
n=17
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (20 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-179
1.5587
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#13010
UUID7819475a-a186-4423-b3ad-79bb56581d99
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-24 20:07 UTC
Graded2026-09-25 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4c32da87e3ab5f5ddbaddf74766ee8c451e9e25adfa8dba5230422189791786b
Closing line-179 captured 2026-09-24 21:22 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash417249b6cf90d90f97093a35353d6676cc765a15264cac2215cd3844e49df8a1

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.4% hashed
    1,370 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.6% closed
    1,368 settled picks · 65.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public2 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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