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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-13🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED fd2b309e

Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 Runs Scored

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

-175risk0.22u→win0.13u
WIN

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-175

Closing

-175

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +35.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +35.8pt EV vs implied
  • 100.0% over last 15 games
  • 8 days off. MLB rust pattern; SP K-rate and batter contact both regress on first game back.

Line movement

-175-1750.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
38
Settled
38
Hit rate
57.9%
22-16
ROI
-9.70%
-0.56u
CLV avg
-0.11%
n=36
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (38 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1774
UUID1709a7a3-9b0f-4b0c-923e-11f8101fa425
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-13 15:12 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 16:50 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashfd2b309ee8c8b4bb1e55fa574890b84d2831534e4cc64c6050914a7005d6c4c5
Closing line-175 captured 2026-08-13 15:51 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashbd6ad515dc27b2a4b30d656b63ab8737e772e0933ba040de2b2f34b23ca44092

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger96.1% hashed
    981 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close58.3% closed
    981 settled picks · 58.3% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public0 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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