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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-31🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 90918d73

Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 Runs Scored

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

-165risk0.22u→win0.13u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-165

Closing

-165

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +36.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Detroit Tigers1
Minnesota Twins11
Winner: Minnesota Twins · 2026-08-31
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
8
Settled
8
Hit rate
62.5%
5-3
ROI
-1.34%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.02%
n=8
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (8 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#6101
UUID53492ad0-fd56-4ff6-94ea-a55aafa744e6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-31 20:41 UTC
Graded2026-09-01 05:47 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash90918d73f48cbbdb132d3c9b2a5dd4e4770f78d120d0004502cbe8e423fd8610
Closing line-165 captured 2026-08-31 22:23 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash4a17c91544b8cf70a01773bc02609d9d77e72196a9af9664ffe6b5a0a1bc405e

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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