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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-11🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED ea8b1c6a

Taylor Ward Under 1.5 Total Bases

Seattle Mariners @ Athletics

-180risk0.22u→win0.12u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-180

Closing

-180

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +35.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Seattle Mariners5
Athletics6
Winner: Athletics · 2026-09-11
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#9263
UUID4aba0c45-a792-4dfe-ae14-53d12b7757f2
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-11 20:41 UTC
Graded2026-09-12 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashea8b1c6a1f281541a979344783bfbae523adfd1b8b91f2e79b0bf1a0965816c3
Closing line-180 captured 2026-09-12 00:23 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashbd2eb27c8c955c9553b942c9fcb489641057590c0750fd5a3651cbc7ee067728

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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