Cleveland Guardians ML
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Edge
Pre-tip moneyline favorite captured at fire time
Signal
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
Risk
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Final · Grading detail
Tampa Bay Rays3
Cleveland Guardians2
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-04-27
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-130
1.7692
Closing
-143
1.6993
Delta
+4.12%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#18
UUID0dd5ba6e-ee1f-4c74-89b1-0618477c63ca
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-04-27 20:56 UTC
Graded2026-04-28 00:41 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824446:2026-04-27T22:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash12befe8dd2bccd836cc94e154ef77b6a7d2b37ea402333b3980283998bf65856
Closing line-143 captured 2026-04-27 22:12 UTC
CLV delta+4.12%
Closing hashe8acaf6ecc4b8df02f28fee0188bda26d4c0fedb8b4bf0870b41409020abbfec
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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