Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-15🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 82255140

Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits

Milwaukee Brewers @ LA Dodgers

-173risk0.16u→win0.09u
WIN

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-173

Closing

-169

CLV

-0.86%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +23.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +23.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #17 vs this prop (-1.7% vs league avg over 162 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-173-169+0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
9
Settled
9
Hit rate
55.6%
5-4
ROI
-10.51%
-0.12u
CLV avg
+1.47%
n=8
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (9 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-173
1.5780
Closing
-169
1.5917
Delta
-0.86%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1783
UUID3de42924-5db7-49a5-820a-5f7141a9b021
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-15 15:04 UTC
Graded2026-08-16 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8225514045b8e3f63962b040ebfd7559b2379a05266959511f96a29ea6959697
Closing line-169 captured 2026-08-15 21:52 UTC
CLV delta-0.86%
Closing hashc111eb53dd4851b6c90b2d9efa60990691dbb329f5b3a4ff1e57ef15176b703f

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger96.1% hashed
    981 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close58.3% closed
    981 settled picks · 58.3% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public0 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801