Miami Marlins ML
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Edge
Pre-tip moneyline favorite captured at fire time
Signal
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
Risk
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies1
Miami Marlins0
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-05-04
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-110
1.9091
Closing
+112
2.1200
Delta
-9.95%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#429
UUIDe434f0b0-3814-44e7-aa34-21336ca77a74
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-04 22:11 UTC
Graded2026-05-07 21:05 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823874:2026-05-04T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash28cbe8eaa89953c494265f86f7328684fe6eabcc98c111fcaeeede4e6548fb72
Closing line+112 captured 2026-05-04 22:42 UTC
CLV delta-9.95%
Closing hashe5480e695615ab523f1160d01efb31b7245142f862373777028825998bef3c2d
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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