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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-25🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 762cf275

Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 Hits

Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies

-170risk0.13u→win0.08uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in03:31:25
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.13u

Odds

-170

Closing

pending

CLV

-

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 82.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +19.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +19.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #30 vs this prop (-15.3% vs league avg over 286 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Citizens Bank Park: 20 mph wind blowing IN (N): ball suppressed, fade HR overs; precip risk: chance light rain.
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
22
Hit rate
57.1%
12-9
ROI
-11.14%
-0.34u
CLV avg
-0.09%
n=20
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

Audit trail

Pick ID#13170
UUID71d09c06-d1ac-4572-9e2a-3156b8b4712c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-25 18:07 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash762cf27575f51fbd251ecd5e577d95fa6d63f92a51e3c011c60b2fbed1eb23e0

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger80.3% hashed
    1,328 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close64.5% closed
    1,311 settled picks · 64.5% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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