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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 3f3533e8

Logan Henderson Over 14.5 Outs Recorded

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies

-165risk0.22u→win0.13uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in04:04:34
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-165

Closing

pending

CLV

-

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +36.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +36.7pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #18 vs this prop (-3.7% vs league avg over 272 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Citizens Bank Park: 15 mph wind blowing IN (NE): ball suppressed, fade HR overs.
Model Record (30d)
Picks
21
Settled
19
Hit rate
64.7%
11-6
ROI
+6.67%
+0.16u
CLV avg
+1.90%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (19 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

Audit trail

Pick ID#12761
UUID5991fc7f-ff72-44b2-8c8a-86f0003d5990
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-23 15:13 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3f3533e88497788d94a250b8133d1639d8dea3d315ae2d0d8b77363d08432b9d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger80.8% hashed
    1,309 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.9% closed
    1,288 settled picks · 63.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public21 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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