San Diego Padres ML
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
Edge
Pre-tip moneyline favorite captured at fire time
Signal
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
Risk
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Final · Grading detail
Chicago Cubs7
San Diego Padres9
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-04-27
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-116
1.8621
Closing
-120
1.8333
Delta
+1.57%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#46
UUID8dfda008-e73a-4c0c-9e72-e2c98e13dc8d
Surfacesharp_degraded:MLB
Posted2026-04-28 01:11 UTC
Graded2026-04-28 04:51 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc45b12addb421980e032c1a95057f7f61e2394663f144f8e83f6d6199bf4b620
Closing line-120 captured 2026-04-28 01:41 UTC
CLV delta+1.57%
Closing hash1352d9207e3ebf03a2170a37164abc809d7e629d7946a653f1d69d8bb69ec2b1
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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