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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 149edfca

Fernando Tatís Jr. Over 0.5 Runs Scored

Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres

-167risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-167

Closing

-162

CLV

-1.14%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.5% implied → +17.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betrivers)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Miami Marlins2
San Diego Padres8
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-09-18
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
50.0%
8-8
ROI
-24.70%
-0.58u
CLV avg
+1.72%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-167
1.5988
Closing
-162
1.6173
Delta
-1.14%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#11326
UUID8624252a-11dd-4df6-8311-fb4149c18a95
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-18 20:43 UTC
Graded2026-09-19 07:49 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash149edfca7369ba70b325c9148ea44bad96f7ed625545406ae4451766ad1f677e
Closing line-162 captured 2026-09-19 00:22 UTC
CLV delta-1.14%
Closing hash4dd7e32c270ba00e5df429cfe6a330afd1a6ba5c8e244a2356171f3bce7ddd58

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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