Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 Hits
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
first pitch in03:32:51
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.
Edge
Empirical 84.9% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +21.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +21.2pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #26 vs this prop (-9.9% vs league avg over 276 games)
- 84.9% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
22
Hit rate
57.1%
12-9
ROI
-11.14%
-0.34u
CLV avg
-0.09%
n=20
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#13169
UUIDf9f59007-425b-40ae-ab84-d14a34b8392c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-25 18:07 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash65f2d1919f4853720157b8e35016389a6908693d4a453982e77ac616dc525fa2
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Why this receipt is trustable
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