Luis Arraez Over 0.5 Hits
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
-290WIN
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 74.4% implied → +12.3pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Audit trail
Pick ID#685
UUID155aa2dd-a676-43b6-b946-0984431dec7f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-11 20:35 UTC
Graded2026-05-12 08:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3a8f367512f0215950f44df0cc7032701f7759a766fd0dcc7bbc686c28198205
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