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boxingMoneyline.2026-05-15🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 546d9fbf

Karen Chukhadzhian ML

Paddy Donovan @ Karen Chukhadzhian

-175risk1u→win0.57u
LOSS

Stake

1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-185

CLV

+2.01%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: draftkings)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

BOXING Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

Game context

Context signals

  • 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Karen Chukhadzhian priced at **63.6% implied** to win - book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
  • 📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ DRAFTKINGS -175 ➋ FANDUEL -205

Line movement

-175-185-0.03 dec
Related Picks (8)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+2.01%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#758
UUID57d16eb0-2a6b-4a86-989f-4016c6159311
Surfacesharp_degraded:BOXING
Posted2026-05-15 21:20 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 15:27 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash546d9fbfcf173829a2c8a6b7e0f977f301668e0d5504562804d5adab0973b93e
Closing line-185 captured 2026-05-15 22:16 UTC
CLV delta+2.01%
Closing hash197581f31ec97167e4c0c4a070b7390092b9f814a558a98bf61166e82758f2b3

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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