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mlbMoneyline.2026-05-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED bbd6f1d1

Cleveland Guardians ML

Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians

-154risk0.5u→win0.32u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.5u

Odds

-154

Closing

-151

CLV

-0.78%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: bovada)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record. · elite-gate: n=15 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds4
Cleveland Guardians7
Winner: Cleveland Guardians · 2026-05-16
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-154
1.6494
Closing
-151
1.6623
Delta
-0.78%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#797
UUID25cb732e-dfbc-4ae5-aeb6-0e1b60e652df
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-16 20:56 UTC
Graded2026-05-17 01:03 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824435:2026-05-16T22:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashbbd6f1d164fdf98bd94672537fd7e86381bdfd7b63df6096091f97e33dcb56d6
Closing line-151 captured 2026-05-16 22:11 UTC
CLV delta-0.78%
Closing hashdc758ad1ef23250f377dac854b90734d4a49d418caf9a4ee34020ed7dcc7b6ee

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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