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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED a0822fcc

Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Hits

Milwaukee Brewers @ LA Dodgers

-172risk0.16u→win0.09u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-172

Closing

-174

CLV

+0.42%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 63.2% implied → +23.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers6
Los Angeles Dodgers2
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-08-16
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-172
1.5814
Closing
-174
1.5747
Delta
+0.42%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1791
UUID97323ddc-06a3-45e8-b760-fd305f0783f0
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-16 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-08-16 23:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha0822fcc3ed45c7b45c29d6b0a9194913a53e0eed104b748a45eda70a76c204a
Closing line-174 captured 2026-08-16 18:54 UTC
CLV delta+0.42%
Closing hashd4d626b980bece86f18f7abae6b64d2006128808ff1445601ead88e3dd7c32ec

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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