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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-18🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1e4034ae

Azura Stevens Over 5.5 Rebounds

New York Liberty @ Chicago Sky

-178risk0.16u→win0.09u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-178

Closing

-172

CLV

-1.24%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 64.0% implied → +22.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 0fe83b)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +22.6pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #8 vs this prop (+3.2% vs league avg over 46 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-178-172+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-178
1.5618
Closing
-172
1.5814
Delta
-1.24%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1801
UUID080fcad2-e93f-498e-9882-65d188da5d09
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-18 20:40 UTC
Graded2026-08-19 04:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1e4034ae96a7bacf971039aa534d8c440f08eab3c411bce59b9db145e78e9130
Closing line-172 captured 2026-08-18 23:53 UTC
CLV delta-1.24%
Closing hash08bc477880b2436504efec776c09b17a8ba10db721b090e25674c7658801d5bb

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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