Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Hits
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Edge
Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +15.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres4
Los Angeles Dodgers2
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-09-24
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-179
1.5587
Closing
-186
1.5376
Delta
+1.37%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#12924
UUID0b9b2e25-a16d-475a-9194-a3d93c8f34b6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-24 14:37 UTC
Graded2026-09-25 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash18b4ba050e75b2fe9c01d3272fa045bb36095fe3ecd46f8b171a887b973fb9d7
Closing line-186 captured 2026-09-25 00:52 UTC
CLV delta+1.37%
Closing hashd765cf69cf0fafd5883b5c1c06888b137252c037b68c89febb61c19ee1a7b67d
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Why this receipt is trustable
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