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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-25🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 8f7fdff4

Troy Johnston Over 0.5 Hits

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-176

CLV

+2.65%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +11.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+25.2% vs league avg over 282 games)
  • Opposing starter Tanner Gordon blowing up: 6.8 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.4 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-164-176-0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
+2.65%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1039
UUID5a02a054-7ed2-448e-b0d4-aa134ee44ff6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-25 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-26 04:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8f7fdff42fc1b89131a17a3329308e14c4320f8ac11ebe9438f0afebd41a6e99
Closing line-176 captured 2026-05-25 23:42 UTC
CLV delta+2.65%
Closing hashf0b33444e77ebdddc75326643cbf4923f3c7aeec49f77f91d0d1406252de06f6

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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