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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-25🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f42c6789

Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-168

CLV

-1.49%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 78.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +14.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +14.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+7.7% vs league avg over 278 games)
  • Opposing starter Nick Lodolo blowing up: 7.2 ERA over last 3 starts at 5 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-175-168+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-168
1.5952
Delta
-1.49%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1035
UUIDd5f7c52a-f17d-4917-8f9f-10d8354cc263
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-25 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-26 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf42c6789e1dda574282a38f44381945cc2bc1b2a75f431a87a873b94be83be1e
Closing line-168 captured 2026-05-25 20:32 UTC
CLV delta-1.49%
Closing hash13b952335cf07c4d59e5cb42113f26e7fea38edda4d601f0b27c88b97ba5770a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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