Shakira Austin Over 11.5 Points
Washington Mystics @ Minnesota Lynx
Edge
Empirical 76.9% over last 13 games vs 62.3% implied → +12.7pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 13 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +12.7pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #12 vs this prop (-5.1% vs league avg over 102 games)
- 76.9% over last 13 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
50.0%
8-8
ROI
-24.70%
-0.58u
CLV avg
+1.72%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1247
UUID6a3a792b-8df6-4360-95f4-2d90707f6aeb
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-20 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-22 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash236e2bcaeb9f58661b63d93d5eb3fd339289ded225c3fc7d033759709f43892c
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Why this receipt is trustable
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