Courtney Williams Over 14.5 Points
Minnesota Lynx @ Washington Mystics
Edge
Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel) (ref: c486b0)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +11.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (-5.4% vs league avg over 111 games)
- 73.3% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
15
Settled
15
Hit rate
53.3%
8-7
ROI
-20.98%
-0.47u
CLV avg
+1.71%
n=15
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (15 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1288
UUID631d9066-0947-48cf-bd27-a4cb3dea4d40
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-25 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash842c1e9241fba371a4e904425d75bea58ec90d83fc5d556ad2268d8d01f54e73
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Why this receipt is trustable
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