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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 2f1ebef8

Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 Hits

Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-176risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-176

Closing

-170

CLV

-1.26%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +16.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds3
Arizona Diamondbacks5
Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-08-23
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
-1.26%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1825
UUID12f167fa-c043-4ac5-ae58-0ac242b8c090
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-23 15:38 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 23:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2f1ebef86128b31ae4693e6e0fc20835320840ebc4e83c91a81a8754ca6e006a
Closing line-170 captured 2026-08-23 18:49 UTC
CLV delta-1.26%
Closing hash8841399b17ab45e1d161b2680a791fcd521318e8bbc1529a16c59c8f87572160

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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