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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-18◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1ad551e3

Olivia Miles Over 3.5 Rebounds

Portland Fire @ Minnesota Lynx

-189risk0.15u→win0.08u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-189

Closing

-176

CLV

-2.49%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 65.4% implied → +21.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +21.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #5 vs this prop (+4.6% vs league avg over 80 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-189-176+0.04 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-189
1.5291
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
-2.49%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1431
UUID7ea9e578-ce2c-4c6b-8ec6-3c85c72713a6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-18 15:19 UTC
Graded2026-07-19 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1ad551e30ca4b1d9bf4d44b6a5af6e0e6fa80d58aca41ea3cea0e0caee809509
Closing line-176 captured 2026-07-18 22:51 UTC
CLV delta-2.49%
Closing hash35dab6debd66feb05eb02a76355eac999f89980d430eb33aceea5025974e3c7f

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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