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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-18💎Elite◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 9c93736d

Kiki Iriafen Over 11.5 Points

Washington Mystics @ Golden State Valkyries

-171risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-171

Closing

-187

CLV

+3.26%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.1% implied → +16.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 63544d)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #14 vs this prop (-10.3% vs league avg over 98 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-171-187-0.05 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-171
1.5848
Closing
-187
1.5348
Delta
+3.26%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1432
UUIDa8434bff-fe67-4b62-8b5e-68b6f5785481
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-18 15:19 UTC
Graded2026-07-19 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9c93736d25f6ddc169b07e56deecd1bc65d6aff0645ab479e60eb361065760e4
Closing line-187 captured 2026-07-18 23:06 UTC
CLV delta+3.26%
Closing hash8bcbcb593b8e536925d9e3e726551a8a01e96f171a15cb8b3b914fa179e2155d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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