Masyn Winn Under 1.5 Total Bases
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
Edge
Empirical 85.4% over last 15 games vs 64.9% implied → +11.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Chicago Cubs7
St. Louis Cardinals3
Winner: Chicago Cubs · 2026-07-27
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-185
1.5405
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1569
UUIDc9a9e5a2-19cb-492e-b927-76e09a101497
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-27 20:00 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 20:26 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash845143055c5319295e641c4c7ff32feadb876d517433561eaaf1c8b5bc039aa9
Closing line-185 captured 2026-07-27 22:23 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hasha3de755e103d19c9a11cebfd7165236af8a08c8d8a7f783b96a75d842f1c27ec
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Why this receipt is trustable
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