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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-09🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED c787d204

Richie Palacios Under 0.5 batter_singles

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves

-175risk0.12u→win0.07uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in01:04:25

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-175

Closing

-175

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +21.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: 4abfff)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +21.8pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #17 vs this prop (+0.1% vs league avg over 286 games)
  • 95.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-175-1750.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
1
Settled
0
Hit rate
—
ROI
—
CLV avg
—
Last 2 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (0 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8602
UUID345574d0-1728-4103-841c-c1733d3d932e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-09 15:11 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc787d204db83cd74aecfbfd17c6b5f5d3a30693d85ea32a660e06a8888542201
Closing line-175 captured 2026-09-09 21:53 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashcdcd9e01b5210c0bc5b843e67b6dec785495638c47a86cbc4ea1fde21cdb14ac

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,117 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public19 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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