Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 Hits
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
first pitch in01:46:49
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.
Edge
Empirical 86.2% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +24.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: 9e824a)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +24.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #19 vs this prop (-4.0% vs league avg over 305 games)
- 86.2% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
27
Settled
26
Hit rate
56.0%
14-11
ROI
-12.53%
-0.45u
CLV avg
-0.03%
n=24
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (26 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#13501
UUID45f3136a-629d-4a5e-88b7-03422177eeb2
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-27 15:07 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashea6f4410ae8b02de124005925d9566a7800acf67b25f2e5dffa8013bf3b72d11
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Why this receipt is trustable
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