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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-15🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b154e686

Nathan Church Over 0.5 Hits

San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals

-175risk0.15u→win0.09u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-175

Closing

-159

CLV

-3.53%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 85.4% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +21.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betrivers)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
San Francisco Giants10
St. Louis Cardinals3
Winner: San Francisco Giants · 2026-09-15
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
24
Hit rate
66.7%
16-8
ROI
+3.44%
+0.12u
CLV avg
+0.47%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (24 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-159
1.6289
Delta
-3.53%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#10610
UUID6839ff98-8483-4e03-9b2a-bfeb80cd0a21
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-15 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-09-16 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb154e68661d69e55c318189efb38766f70eae4035f5b244b84f574d762672bd9
Closing line-159 captured 2026-09-15 22:22 UTC
CLV delta-3.53%
Closing hashd154d61517bb1496494b6f7f7bc426aa36fe65a5047d816799df9b364b3b75a4

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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