Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 Runs Scored
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Edge
Empirical 94.7% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +20.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (caesars)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Pittsburgh Pirates3
Chicago Cubs4
Winner: Chicago Cubs · 2026-09-12
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
57.9%
11-8
ROI
-10.96%
-0.29u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#9479
UUID2e3e23fc-5e42-4bce-a5b9-8493e0be4964
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-12 15:12 UTC
Graded2026-09-13 18:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc8bc4abe3836cf2f44c0129fbac84c0e138d34b6775cb08dea198eaaab69e5f9
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Why this receipt is trustable
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