Andrew Vaughn Under 1.5 Total Bases
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 67.7% implied → +11.3pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers3
San Francisco Giants16
Winner: San Francisco Giants · 2026-07-29
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1632
UUID12166db8-248d-4d17-9250-bc9dab06cbd9
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-29 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 23:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf7a274f06a02f65e116317f9208288ae809692eb3fa71528b81b179ce051ec72
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Why this receipt is trustable
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