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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-31🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6908db96

Amed Rosario Under 1.5 Total Bases

New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

-165risk0.22u→win0.13u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-165

Closing

-185

CLV

+4.25%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +36.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: 55ae4f)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
New York Yankees2
Chicago Cubs0
Winner: New York Yankees · 2026-07-31
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+4.25%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1683
UUID7d0bd930-ed72-471b-a666-67aff12d0021
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-31 16:21 UTC
Graded2026-07-31 22:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6908db966cab5541c8f9951abb544c1bc9a22e4cae44e91f97d1f89c3052aed5
Closing line-185 captured 2026-07-31 16:54 UTC
CLV delta+4.25%
Closing hashada14febad44fc73503b2c002dc828f04e76fee29c361431cd321ba7d46de8b5

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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