Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 3472b332

Taylor Walls Under 1.5 Total Bases

Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies

-190risk0.22u→win0.12u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-190

Closing

-180

CLV

-1.88%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 65.5% implied → +34.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Tampa Bay Rays13
Colorado Rockies9
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays · 2026-08-03
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-190
1.5263
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
-1.88%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1726
UUID660b0d7b-d2b1-42bf-9494-35fe702be234
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-03 20:43 UTC
Graded2026-08-04 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3472b3325d72babb84fb5513a68bf31c446d5625b445759f4412538274d4d643
Closing line-180 captured 2026-08-03 23:15 UTC
CLV delta-1.88%
Closing hashbb1a3596944d1346c4377b5d341fe243f0916ff1842b6d53d4e7dcbb5793a271

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801