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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-06🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4ce45a19

Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM

Name: NuroPicks
Availability: InStock
Author: NuroPicks LLC

Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever

-179risk0.22u→win0.12u

LOSS

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-179

Closing

-175

CLV

-0.81%

Source

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time

Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 64.2% implied → +34.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

⊞Game context

Context signals

+34.5pt EV vs implied
100.0% over last 15 games
Vegas total 191.5 (WNBA avg 165; high-scoring environment).

Line movement

-179-175+0.01 dec

◢Related Picks (15)

Same team (7d)

LJackie Young Over 19.5 Points@ -1732026-09-22 LChelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists@ -1702026-08-18 LKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1702026-08-16 WChelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists@ -1702026-08-15 LA'ja Wilson Over 8.5 Rebounds@ -1792026-08-13 WA'ja Wilson Over 8.5 Rebounds@ -1732026-08-11 WKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1782026-08-11 WChelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists@ -1672026-08-08 WKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1752026-08-08 WKelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points@ -1922026-08-02

Same model

WDaniel Lynch Under 3.5 Strikeouts@ -1802026-09-16 WTaylor Ward Under 1.5 Total Bases@ -1802026-09-11 LCam Smith Under 0.5 batter_singles@ -1752026-09-02 WDillon Dingler Under 0.5 Runs Scored@ -1652026-08-31 WXavier Edwards Under 0.5 Runs Scored@ -1752026-08-13

CLV math

Posted

-179

1.5587

Closing

-175

1.5714

Delta

-0.81%

posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1743

UUID4cec437b-9f00-4aaa-816d-38bc1ed7ce93

Surfaceprop-slate-daily

Posted2026-08-06 20:07 UTC

Graded2026-08-07 02:15 UTC

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hash4ce45a198e33d7ebffadadc2c16dc7df5f62ac577c69f20980f660168aac9b3c

Closing line-175 captured 2026-08-06 21:34 UTC

CLV delta-0.81%

Closing hash7725fe796b6822a02ffbd9f96590881c945a341726caafd9f7b0ba9cc99fa109

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Why this receipt is trustable

Append-only ledger78.0% hashed
1,378 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
Graded against close65.9% closed
1,378 settled picks · 65.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
Every pick public0 pending
Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.

Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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