Jackie Young Over 19.5 Points
Los Angeles Sparks @ Las Vegas Aces
first tip-off in04:46:31
Bet onDK
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 63.4% implied → +23.3pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 12fcb4)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +23.3pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (-0.6% vs league avg over 51 games)
- 86.7% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
14
Settled
13
Hit rate
53.9%
7-6
ROI
-22.82%
-0.45u
CLV avg
+2.07%
n=13
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (15)
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#12532
UUID4c6f9c9f-2e65-4679-a597-3e29e1524b7a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-22 20:37 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf6b0e7232a1c4ba9d4bf4867ff2ef8532b051fb15f047c575f6c4be38f47064b
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Why this receipt is trustable
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