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soccerAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 41ce8572

Julian Alvarez Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Name: NuroPicks
Availability: InStock
Author: NuroPicks LLC

Argentina @ Spain

-190risk0.1u→win0.05uVOID

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-190

Closing

-190

CLV

0.00%

Source

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time

Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 6 games vs 65.5% implied → +13.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

SOCCER player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

⊞Game context

Context signals

+13.8pt EV vs implied
100.0% over last 6 games
Bayesian-shrunk to 79.3%

Line movement

-190-1900.00 dec

◯Model Record (30d)

prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window

Picks

23

Settled

23

Hit rate

60.9%

14-9

ROI

-4.96%

-0.17u

CLV avg

+0.96%

n=23

Last 20 settled · cumulative units

ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.

◢Related Picks (20)

Same slate

Same team (7d)

VAlex Baena Anytime Goalscorer +500@ +5002026-07-19 VLionel Messi First Goalscorer +430@ +4302026-07-19 VDani Olmo Over 0.5 Shots on Target -105@ -1052026-07-19 VLamine Yamal Score or Assist +115@ +1152026-07-19 VTotal Corners Over 8.5 +110@ +1102026-07-19 VArgentina Under 0.5 Team Goals +151@ +1512026-07-19 VHalftime Result: Draw -105@ -1052026-07-19 VMikel Oyarzabal Score or Assist +120@ +1202026-07-19 VBoth Teams To Score - No -118@ -1182026-07-19 VJulian Alvarez Anytime Goalscorer +270@ +2702026-07-19

Same model

LT.J. Rumfield Over 0.5 Hits@ -1642026-09-09 LRafael Devers Over 0.5 Total Bases@ -1672026-09-08 WCal Raleigh Over 0.5 Hits@ -1672026-09-08 LLawrence Butler Over 0.5 Hits@ -1702026-09-08 WHéctor Rodríguez Over 0.5 Hits@ -1762026-09-07

CLV math

Posted

-190

1.5263

Closing

-190

1.5263

Delta

0.00%

posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1554

UUID23451a1d-cc8c-4162-b48a-6e6769072d83

Surfaceprop-slate-daily

Posted2026-07-19 18:32 UTC

Graded2026-07-26 16:11 UTC

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hash41ce85727ac729545553e6f8a2120f2b27b1a2d9084aa74e67a3059d9525afb1

Closing line-190 captured 2026-07-19 18:40 UTC

CLV delta+0.00%

Closing hash3a2c78d11fbbff7efa278ba387b6b7c625ecdb0b0ceea9dd578bf99eca131879

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Why this receipt is trustable

Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
Graded against close62.0% closed
1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
Every pick public14 pending
Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.

Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801