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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-08🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f8ed627c

Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM

Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky

-175risk0.22u→win0.13u
WIN

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-175

Closing

-175

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +36.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +36.0pt EV vs implied
  • 100.0% over last 15 games
  • Vegas total 189.5 (WNBA avg 165; high-scoring environment).

Line movement

-175-1750.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1747
UUID239c5e69-268a-4cf3-b0ad-0113a0ac4163
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-08 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-08 23:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf8ed627c4dae43db12b6bd7a2f990f424e2179f4a8e58ff6ee1d89f3ab23510a
Closing line-175 captured 2026-08-08 18:04 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashe829fb4e568b8e07932d349f46203e6a5141d268c2d7502fb238b23ab365eaaf

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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