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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-31🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED dc91433d

Colton Cowser Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

-200risk0.19u→win0.1u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.19u

Odds

-200

Closing

-200

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.5% over last 15 games vs 66.7% implied → +29.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies4
Baltimore Orioles6
Winner: Baltimore Orioles · 2026-07-31
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-park-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
1
Settled
1
Hit rate
0.0%
0-1
ROI
-100.00%
-0.12u
CLV avg
0.00%
n=1
Last 3 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (1 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-200
1.5000
Closing
-200
1.5000
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1687
UUID4567499b-4e9b-44e1-bd90-de2dfc0d7e9d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-31 20:15 UTC
Graded2026-08-01 05:19 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashdc91433ddd5593d2cd523fd217043d84a44910efa0d7f3d991f0e3b4c1309f25
Closing line-200 captured 2026-07-31 21:39 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash51fc0030f5265aae729f047265be840156926a392cb70b8dabeaee36ae669801

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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