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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 40a9b822

Rece Hinds Under 0.5 Runs Scored

Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles

-175risk0.19u→win0.11u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.19u

Odds

-175

Closing

-275

CLV

+15.24%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.5% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +31.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers1
Baltimore Orioles0
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-09-19
Model Record (30d)
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
57.9%
11-8
ROI
-10.96%
-0.29u
CLV avg
+1.69%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-275
1.3636
Delta
+15.24%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#11540
UUIDda95f26d-2016-4ab7-a828-574392e4a033
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-19 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-09-20 02:19 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash40a9b82207587166e2afbb8267c2c9c83de9de780aa57514c094d561e6a7d6c9
Closing line-275 captured 2026-09-19 18:37 UTC
CLV delta+15.24%
Closing hashad46a15d6250ce1bf10a7a0aa0dfc2a1e017e2a6205005c6665506915949510a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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