Troy Johnston Over 0.5 Hits
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
-164
WIN
Edge
Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +11.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Game context
Context signals
- +11.2pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+25.2% vs league avg over 282 games)
- Opposing starter Tanner Gordon blowing up: 6.8 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.4 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.
Line movement
-164-176-0.04 decModel Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
8
Settled
8
Hit rate
62.5%
5-3
ROI
-1.47%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+6.04%
n=4
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
CLV math
Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
+2.65%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1039
UUID5a02a054-7ed2-448e-b0d4-aa134ee44ff6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-25 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-05-26 04:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8f7fdff42fc1b89131a17a3329308e14c4320f8ac11ebe9438f0afebd41a6e99
Closing line-176 captured 2026-05-25 23:42 UTC
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