Marine Johannes Over 1.5 3PM
New York Liberty @ Chicago Sky
Edge
Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +11.1pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #7 vs this prop (-0.3% vs league avg over 102 games)
- 73.3% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
3
Settled
3
Hit rate
66.7%
2-1
ROI
+9.25%
+0.04u
CLV avg
+0.14%
n=3
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (3 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1184
UUID80920f21-f216-4382-bd0e-9d2de782109e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-16 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-18 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash33430af4c8dfa4352c417ed496bc07b3e5f465f29fd1af5b2a9ee6d4e4e3be55
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Why this receipt is trustable
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