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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-07🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED efb9a41b

Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 Hits

Cincinnati Reds @ LA Dodgers

-164risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-164

Closing

-165

CLV

+0.23%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +17.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: a01574)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds3
Los Angeles Dodgers6
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-09-07
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
+0.23%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8194
UUID34daa295-0c1d-47d4-962d-19774d320ccb
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-07 22:11 UTC
Graded2026-09-08 04:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashefb9a41b8f0acbc1715e4a103f47ae6ec5ac0ff6b0f4a4f49af14a8050ccab85
Closing line-165 captured 2026-09-07 23:53 UTC
CLV delta+0.23%
Closing hash5a3583f46a682732fa6182bf7729be3974408c0f9d43c8fb3bb89d780b64f83e

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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