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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-07🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 7297cc4d

Tyrone Taylor Over 0.5 Hits

CHI Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers

-163risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-163

Closing

-185

CLV

+4.74%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 89.5% over last 10 games vs 62.0% implied → +18.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 10 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago Cubs3
Milwaukee Brewers4
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-09-07
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-163
1.6135
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+4.74%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8088
UUIDd5db473c-c1e8-4ebe-b531-e13f32696ba4
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-07 15:05 UTC
Graded2026-09-07 21:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7297cc4d80e02bb871f4f6618853d0c956ccec9e7a8ff4480be40a241349a69c
Closing line-185 captured 2026-09-07 16:53 UTC
CLV delta+4.74%
Closing hash5fd916e770e9a8ecfaa60eb34449ce69763b81a6640829481688fa6895cd094d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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