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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-07🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e6006aa1

Héctor Rodríguez Over 0.5 Hits

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

-176risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-176

Closing

-176

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +16.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds3
Los Angeles Dodgers6
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-09-07
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8195
UUIDdc20484b-0b0b-46bf-b82c-293a6ca6a332
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-07 22:11 UTC
Graded2026-09-08 04:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe6006aa14ee7e6d45823e102b21fa2508f1f2609a9cd61a64f0d934248557c53
Closing line-176 captured 2026-09-07 23:53 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash59b835e9ccc44820481c9012898482695890aa21a9fdac57c313443fe8992bb9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,118 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public18 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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