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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-09🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 5eab69ed

Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 Total Bases

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

-170risk0.15u→win0.09u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-170

Closing

-170

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 98.0% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +27.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (caesars)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +27.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #6 vs this prop (+6.6% vs league avg over 285 games)
  • Opposing starter Zebby Matthews blowing up: 8.6 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.6 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.

Line movement

-170-1700.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8603
UUID5a8f4c3e-2873-46bd-846f-ea775b4bc4a3
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-09 15:11 UTC
Graded2026-09-09 20:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5eab69edb174f58c81366de6595cfa1445007343a720b7868a36a531dc6d1a47
Closing line-170 captured 2026-09-09 15:53 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashbbff204d3bef3844c88131577c615dd2c318e84a788e327d5dc2efcc34b73165

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,117 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public19 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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