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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-09🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 81d5aefb

Luis Arraez Under 0.5 Runs Scored

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

-176risk0.12u→win0.07uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in29:16

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-176

Closing

-176

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +21.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (caesars)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +21.8pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (+0.8% vs league avg over 271 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Citizens Bank Park: 10 mph wind blowing OUT (SW): ball carries, HR-friendly; precip risk: partly cloudy then slight chance rain showers.

Line movement

-176-1760.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-176
1.5682
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#8600
UUID71fc57e4-bf44-4c3c-9142-08a8cf0fa4ce
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-09 15:11 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash81d5aefb0b743caee2678a1b74788e27d29cca4bbf940450d114c54a9db45955
Closing line-176 captured 2026-09-09 21:23 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashad7d1ade1ad4c55108030b6a24989453d6b3e37f1c38e90fe76e6a38d2034457

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.7% closed
    1,117 settled picks · 61.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public19 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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